Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 04/09/2008

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Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD fails to extend gains
• Majors make highs in New York
• BOC keeps rates firm

Overnight Preview

• Look for follow-on selling

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 8:30am USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 8:30am USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q
• 10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 11:00am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 1:40pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Summary
After a firmer start the USD has given back some of its gains today after minor US data failed to inspire further gains; technical factors also likely helped the majors stay the course of further erosion. Despite recent weakness the majors were able to stage an intraday rally during the New York session and close well off their lows after making highs during the day after the London fix today. Although a reversal is not quite underway the signs that the USD rally may at least take a pause during the next 24 hours are beginning to show. Cable rallied off the European lows for a high print at 1.7842 before sellers capped the move. Traders note a potential short squeeze could develop should new highs happen during the next day or two. EURO rallied as well for a high print at 1.4533 before sellers capped the move but the same result is possible should a rally extend past the 1.4550 area traders say. Although no major factors could support today’s action most analysts are suggesting that oversold conditions may result in a relief rally near-term. USD/JPY fell on stops for a low print at 108.09 and failed to attract additional buying on the dip ending the day near the lows and possibly in position to challenge the weekly lows around the 107.70 area. USD/CAD broke back as well printing a low print after the BOC rate announcement at 1.0576 drawing an additional reversal signal from the toolbox; traders note that unless the rate can manage another high above today’s high this week the rate has likely put in a double-top on the longer term charts. Swissy also reversed during the day making the USD a coordinated move lower across all the major pairs. In my view, the USD is overdue for a corrective rally and depending on the quality of that rally it might be resuming the overall longer-term bearish scenario. I would look for a net-lower overnight session in Asia tonight and with a lot of potentially bearish data due during the US session tomorrow it is likely that the USD will end lower on the week from here.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.7950
Resistance 2: 1.7900
Resistance 1: 1.7850
Latest New York: 1.7769
Support 1: 1.7660/70
Support 2: 1.7620/30
Support 3: 1.7600

Comments
Rate showing signs of bottoming, light stops noted above the market. Profit-taking bids continue as well. Price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4600
Resistance 2: 1.4550
Resistance 1: 1.4530
Latest New York: 1.4500
Support 1: 1.4370/80
Support 2: 1.4350
Support 3: 1.4300

Comments
Rate showing signs of bottoming as well, likely stops rolled down to around the 1.4550 area. Likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes not impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are now negated near-term; Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky

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DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 03/09/2008

Daily Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• Most of the action was this morning
• USD holds gains but weakens into the end of day
• Traders note profit-taking bids in the majors

Overnight Preview

• Likely a bout of short-covering due
• Quiet ahead of US data

Looking Ahead
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
• All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
• 2:00pm USD Beige Book

Summary
After a strong overnight session the USD held overnight highs across the board failing to
extend the current rally during US forex trade today; as expected ISM data came in neutral-to-weaker giving the
Greenback a bit of a pause this morning. Although trading at significant highs to start the
week the USD has failed to attract aggressive new buying traders say and in fact has given
back some gains to make lows for the New York session against Swissy; other pairs remain
mired in two-way action. Cable bounced nicely off the early NY lows for a full handle before
settling back; traders note stops were the main driver of the rate. Following Cable was EURO
naturally; also making NY highs above the 1.4540 area the rate fell back in quiet two-way
action as well. Despite the large drop in Oil the EURO was able to hold important support at
the 1.4460/70 area so far today and traders note that both GBP and EURO were seeing signs of
stabilizing; both pairs continued to see profit-taking bids on the drops all day. USD/JPY
has gone nowhere today making all its moves overnight and failing at the 109.00 handle to
close in the 108.70 area; traders note that the resignation of Fukuda overnight was largely
a non-event. For the most part today the Greenback remained inside the ranges established in
the first few hours of early NY today; despite a rally in stocks and a slight recovery in
oil the majors were simply not going anywhere after the day got started. On the block
tomorrow the major news is likely to be the Beige Book but traders do not expect anything in
there to either favor or hurt the USD. Analysts remain convinced the US economy has more
sideways consolidation or even retreat to go first before a significant amount of data is
seen to inspire confidence in a recovery. Traders look for the USD to remain under upward
pressure but admit that the USD is due for a correction. In my view, the majors are
overextended to the downside and are showing signs of a near-term bottom. With sentiment
favoring further declines yet an overextended technical picture it seems reasonable that a
relief rally is due soon. Look for the USD to trade sideways tonight ahead of US data
tomorrow.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.8120/30
Resistance 2: 1.8080
Resistance 1: 1.8000/10
Latest New York: 1.7830
Support 1: 1.7780
Support 2: 1.7740/50
Support 3: 1.7720


Comments
Despite sharp drop during holiday trade the rate is attracting bids from larger names
traders say; price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt
helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter
traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids
suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering
rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of
the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect
GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m
4:30am GBP Services PMI
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4630
Resistance 2: 1.4600
Resistance 1: 1.4550
Latest New York: 1.4512
Support 1: 1.4460/70
Support 2: 1.4420
Support 3: 1.4400

Comments
Sympathy selling from GBP and lower oil drives rate into large stops under the 1.4550 area;
likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes not
impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are
now negated near-term if a close today is under previous support at the prior low of 1.4570
area. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily
short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to
resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a
rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for
whipsaw.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:00am EUR Final Services PMI
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Also Check our Forex brokers Section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial
risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider
whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial
resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.

http://www.forexpros.com

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 02/09/2008

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Overnight Asia/Europe

• USD rallies as commodities drop
• Stops drive trade
• Japan PM Fukuda resigns

Today’s Economic Reports
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
• All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
• 2:00pm USD Beige Book

Summary
The USD is sharply higher this morning as FX trading gets back to full swing after the Labor Day holiday in the US. Sharp falls in commodity prices most notably Crude Oil after damage from hurricane Gustov is expected to be light is driving USD bids this morning; Forex traders note most of the action appears to be resting stops. All pairs saw option related defense on the rally but the USD is trading at new highs for the quarter so far to start New York. Cable has dropped to a low print at 1.7780 despite profit-taking bids as stops fired off under the 1.7900 handle. Traders report selling has been in sympathy with EURO as that rate breaks through reported major bids; Cable now set to challenge the 1.7740 area as momentum favors the bears but traders note that large names have been seen buying on the dip to the 1.7810 area. EURO has a low print at 1.4465 despite the presence of Swiss private bank buys above the market on the break. Traders also note Russian names on the bid as well. EURO fell through stops layered under the 1.4550 area and traders note sympathy selling along with Cable making you wonder which pair is leading on the break; traders note the sharp $7.00/BBL fall in crude prices as having the most effect on pricing so far this morning. After an early start to the downside USD/JPY has rallied along with other pairs during late Asia with little initial reaction to the resignation of PM Fukuda last night; traders note that the low prints saw light buying but the offers were not there after the lows at 107.76 traded in Asia leaving the rate under reversal; traders report Asian Reserve Managers selling USD across the board but unable to stop the rise higher. Exporters and option defense noted as well as the rate rallied to the 108.80 area for a high print in late Europe at 108.95. Swissy has also rallied hard to trade the 1.1100 handle. High prints at 1.1133 saw stops trigger above the 1.1080 area and the rate is firm above the 1.1100 handle for now. USD/CAD has traded back to the recent highs forming a double-top at the 1.0720/30 area before falling back; traders note that the rate appears to be tracking oil as well. For the first day of September the USD is on the offense across the board most likely as a vote of confidence that energy prices are falling. Despite the large amount of selling interest on the move the momentum is with the bulls today. With poor US data expected this week it will be unlikely that this rally can hold in my view. Look for topping action on lower volume the next 48 hours; the Greenback has likely run its course for the week.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.8120/30
Resistance 2: 1.8080
Resistance 1: 1.8000/10
Latest New York: 1.7845
Support 1: 1.7780
Support 2: 1.7740/50
Support 3: 1.7720

Comments
Despite sharp drop during holiday trade the rate is attracting bids from larger names traders say; price drop likely over-extended on sympathy selling from EURO. Oil no doubt helping to drive trade but rate is becoming severely oversold. Overnight volumes lighter traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally trying to form near-term. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion drop. Close back above the 1.8020 area needed to take some of the pressure off. This stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
Tentative GBP Halifax HPI m/m
4:30am GBP Services PMI
5:30am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4630
Resistance 2: 1.4600
Resistance 1: 1.4550
Latest New York: 1.4512
Support 1: 1.4460/70
Support 2: 1.4420
Support 3: 1.4400

Comments
Sympathy selling from GBP and lower oil drives rate into large stops under the 1.4550 area; likely an exhaustion drop as the rate is attracting professional buying. Volumes note impressive on the move traders say. Rate is overdue for a short-squeeze. EX reversals are now negated near-term if a close today is under previous support at the prior low of 1.4570 area. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
4:00am EUR Final Services PMI
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q

Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky

Also Check our Forex Charts Section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

http://www.forexpros.com

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 28/08/2008

Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD whipsaws with conflicting data
• Traders note volumes thin again
• US data inconclusive

Overnight Preview

• Look for more two-way action
• Should get quiet ahead of US data in the morning

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
Big day for news with our trading partners, expect some whipsaw.


Summary
The Greenback suffered another day of whipsaw today failing to extend recent ranges in thin trade. For the most part, USD traders are looking ahead to more conclusive news due overnight and tomorrow from both our trading partners and here in the US. After failing at highs overnight, the USD managed to recover and try for new highs in most pairs but failing to reach into the zones of reported stops to the upside while traders watched for news on other markets; such as oil and equities. Oil prices managed to whip EURO around making new lows for the US session but failing to reach into real money interest under the 1.4600 handle; overnight lows continued to remain unchallenged in US trade. Holding the 1.4700 area into the close is encouraging to the bulls but the big news will be US GDP tomorrow; traders are looking for a revision upwards but likely will wait for a test of the 1.4600 handle before making a move. GBP continued under pressure with EURO for most of the session moving under the 1.8400 handle to test the low 1.8300’s but volumes are thin traders say. A brief look under the 1.8300 area for a low print at 1.8283 was enough for stops to be triggered but the rate is back in the 1.8330 area into the close suggesting that bids are there but light so far. USD/JPY failed to rally and hold the 110.00 handle again for the 7th day in a row suggesting that offers remain thick at the highs; trades note that tonight’s Japan data may encourage more volatility. Swissy rallied again into the 1.1000 handle but failed late in the day suggesting that offers are thick in that pair also. Aggressive traders can sell above the 1.0980 area for a break lower to end the week. USD/CAD rallied as well but again was unable to attract bids and remained mired in the 1.0400 handle under the zone of offers said to extend into the 1.0530 area for now. In my view, today was just another day of two-way action with the exception of the GBP; look for the USD to fail again overnight and test the bottom of the range ahead of US data in the morning.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.8650
Resistance 2: 1.8600
Resistance 1: 1.8530
Latest New York: 1.8349
Support 1: 1.8280/90
Support 2: 1.8250
Support 3: 1.8220


Comments
Only pair to fall to a new low but volumes light on the move suggesting overshoot. Rally back in sympathy with EURO. Overnight volumes better traders say; cross-spreaders active in Sterling and EURO suggesting that the USD will be pressured for both pairs near-term. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally finding a low print. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion dip and the rate will recover soon. Look for a bottom the next 48 hours. OK to stand aside but I want to wait just a bit before buying. So far, two-way trade is suggesting GBP is overextended. Close back above the 1.8580 area argues for further gains; aggressive traders can buy the close but again I would wait just a bit. Stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)

2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
6:00am GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence

EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4880/1.4900
Resistance 2: 1.4800
Resistance 1: 1.4760/70
Latest New York: 1.4723
Support 1: 1.4570
Support 2: 1.4550
Support 3: 1.4520/30

Comments
Rate bounces back as close-in stops drive trade; remarks from ECB encourage a round of short-covering. If rate can hold above the 1.4750 area on the close good chance of follow-on buying to end the week. EX reversal overnight suggest tie to buy a new dip under the 1.4700 handle (?). Oil firmer likely to help upside, this is a buying opp in my view but we need to wait through US data this morning. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Van Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Also Check Our Forex Brokers Section

http://www.forexpros.com

Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 27/08/2008

Read the Daily Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD fails to extend overnight strength
• Volumes better
• Stops close-in result in two-way action

Overnight Preview

• Look for more two-way action
• USD is getting “tired” I think

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
• 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
• 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories

Summary
To finish today the USD is off its highs against all pairs but still in positive territory against EURO and GBP; Forex traders note that volumes were better today but that might have been due to Oil’s wild ride pulling in smaller day-trading type accounts. Volatility was high earlier when the majors made highs against the USD in the New York session but all the pairs are finishing more in the mid-range making today’s trade a bit more inconclusive. Sentiment is still favoring the USD near-term and with a lighter calendar to end the week the potential for continued two-way trade is higher. As discussed yesterday, short-term accounts have had a lot more opportunity while the longer position accounts have had to hold through whipsaw. EURO is lower and unable to hold the 1.4700 handle after a try earlier in the day; traders note that technicians are expecting a further drop into the low 1.4500 handle soon but in my view, that would be a buying signal. Shorts were seen liquidating on the break and should further declines be in the works look for low-volume drops followed by higher volume rallies soon. Tomorrow’s Oil inventory data likely to cause a bit of volatility in that market which will likely spillover into EURO and GBP. Cable was also unable to hold the 1.8400 handle on the earlier recovery making for a bit more challenging trade in that pair from the long side. Today’s FOMC minutes late in the day was little help for the GBP bulls as a recovery in that pair needs a steady-to-dovish Fed policy and no hints of that were seen in the minutes. USD/JPY continues to grind sideways and under resistance after failing at the highs again today; stops as expected were seen on the dip into New York lows on the day but bids supported at the same previous level making for another round of two-way trade. USD/CAD is looking weaker and lows at 1.0410 are just shy of the reported large stops under the 1.0400 handle. Tomorrow’s Durables data may be enough to drop that rate into stops but the recovery back to the mid-1.04’s shows the bulls are still trying to take control after the large drop last week. In my view, it’s another day of business as usual making the USD bulls a bit more bold. If there is no upside follow-through on durables tomorrow the highs for the week may be in and a correction in the majors can continue.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.8650
Resistance 2: 1.8600
Resistance 1: 1.8530
Latest New York: 1.8391
Support 1: 1.8320
Support 2: 1.8290/1.8300
Support 3: 1.8250

Comments
Big drop in sympathy with EURO, negates hook reversal and stops drive trade. Finishes better than the open so there is some bid interest coming in. Drop is drawing profit-taking bids suggesting the bottom is finally finding a low print. Overdue for a short-covering rally. Likely an exhaustion dip and the rate will recover soon. Look for a bottom the next 48 hours. OK to stand aside but I want to wait just a bit before buying. EURO dropping forced rate into stops traders agree. So far suggesting GBP is overextended. Close back above the 1.8580 area argues for further gains; aggressive traders can buy the close but again I would wait just a bit. Stop-driven break is likely a head fake in my view. Offers above the market mixed with stops from late shorts so be ready for whipsaw the next few days. Traders expect GBP to track EURO through this week. Continue to expect a lot of cross-trading.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)


EURO/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4880/1.4900
Resistance 2: 1.4800
Resistance 1: 1.4760
Latest New York: 1.4648
Support 1: 1.4570
Support 2: 1.4550
Support 3: 1.4520/30

Comments
Rate falls into stops layered close in and accelerates on thinner volumes. Low prints from active selling at 1.4570; rate makes a six-month low and traders report profit-taking bids. Oil retreats also helping to pressure rate, this is a buying opp in my view but we need to wait 24 hours. Traders suggesting that the rate is vulnerable to a short squeeze. Market is heavily short now so expect a rally. Aggressive traders can continue buying this dip for a return to resistance. Rate continues to track Cable and vice-versa. Now that stops are cleared a rotation higher is coming. US data this week likely to be unfriendly so be ready for whipsaw.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky.

Also check our Forex brokers section.

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

http://www.forexpros.com